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Media Intelligence : MT Resource Guide 2011
The rise and rise of Australia’s population In 2000 Australia had a population of 19 million and the population growth rate had slowed to 1.2%. However over the last decade it has defied the predictions and rather than slowing, the population increase has accelerated, finishing the decade breaking 22 million with a population growth rate twice what was expected, hitting 2% per annum. This decade will see Australia’s population hit 27 million. Mark McCrindle says the highest ever birth numbers, combined with the lowest ever death rate, and record net migration have combined to provide the perfect storm of population growth over the last few years . Australia’s mini baby boom Australia began the last decade with the lowest birth rate on record with a total fertility rate (babies per woman) of 1.7 (2001). It was thought that the birth rate would drop to 1.5 by the end of the decade but the reverse occurred. Australia finished 2009 with the highest total fertility rate for 32 years (now at 1.97 it is close to 2.01 of 1977) and the highest number of births ever (296,261). Also the women having the most babies today are those in their 30s rather than those in their 20s of a decade ago. The highest fertility continues to belong to females aged 30-34 years (127.8 babies per 1,000 women) – the highest for this cohort since 1961. Similarly, women aged 35-39 years reached the highest rate for this cohort since 1948! This baby boom will continue with annual births exceeding 300,000 throughout the decade ahead. The number of women having no children in their lifetime is rising – cu r rently it is one in four, yet the Total Fertility Rate is also rising – caused by the women who are having children having slightly larger families than those of a decade ago. Indeed the average number of children per household (of those who are having children) is now back up to three. future trends As we move into the second decade of the 21st Century, Social Researcher and Futurist Mark McCrindle outlines 10 key trends that will define this next decade. 10trends of the new decade 26 MediaTitles As hundreds queued around the world for the latest Apple iPad an Australian media tycoon told a business breakfast that newspapers were a sunset industry. Where does this leave magazines and other print media? The last decade for magazines has been tough, as readers drifted to largely free websites with the advertisers following. The challenge for publishers is how do they follow their markets onto the web while still making money. Magazines aren’t unique in this challenge – the media industries, like many others, have been affected by the rise of the web. Magazines themselves sit somewhere between the recording and newspaper industries with news- stand sales and subscriptions being a bigger proportion of income while not having the same newspaper classified income which has collapsed so dramatically in recent years. The Shift Online We’ve seen a massive shift to the web over the last decade and that movement is only accelerating as advertisers start to follow consumers and the public embraces social media and online gaming. PriceWaterhouseCooper’s entertainment and Media Outlook forecasts the magazine industry to lose 1% of advertising market share – from 5 to 4% of the overall spend – over the 2010 to 14 period with all the losses going online. Following the Customers Following readers online is the great challenge for the magazine industry, the question is how do they do it and continue to be profitable. The Internet Challenge The greatest problem on the Internet is making money; businesses have trained web surfers to expect online products – particularly news and entertainment – for free. even physical goods have become increasingly commoditised as deal of the day and group buying sites have used “cheap” as the main hook for buyers. Today’s reader and consumer expects goods they find online to be cheap and any content they discover to be free. That isn’t fatal for a business, as the broadcast television industry has shown – you can provide free content paid for by advertisers and make a good living. Part of the online magazine industry’s response to the challenge of Magazines ThIS deCade p26-27,29 10trends.indd 26 14/4/11 12:56:19 AM
MT Resource 2010
Media Trends+Strategy 2012